Kakaretso:Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Phuptjane, litheko tsa tšepe, mashala a kolobisitsoeng, billet, tšepe ea strip, pipe ea tšepe le lihlahisoa tse ling tse ngata li ile tsa fetoha haholo. Le hoja maano a fapa-fapaneng a hlephileng le a hlokolosi a lichelete a khothalelitse ntlafatso e akaretsang ea tšebetso ea moruo oa lehae selemong sena, indasteri ea kaho e ile ea ntlafala butle selemong sena. Ho feta moo, tikoloho ea kantle e ntse e rarahane ebile e matla, phello ea spillover ea ho tlosoa ha leano moruong o moholo e ile ea eketseha, 'me ho na le litšitiso tse ngata tokollong ea tlhokahalo ea lehae. Kamano ea kakaretso ea phepelo le tlhokahalo ea mefuta ea tšepe selemong sena e hlile e le ka mokhoa oa "tebello e matla le 'nete e fokolang". Joalo ka mofuta oa liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng tsa bohlokoa indastering ea kaho, pampiri ena e tla sekaseka ka bokhutšoanyane ts'ebetso ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng Chaena likhoeling tse sa tsoa feta.
Ⅰ. Theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e ile ea theoha haholo selemo le selemo
Ho latela theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa naha lilemong tse 'ne tsa morao tjena, qaleho ea theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng qalong ea 2023 ho hlakile hore e tlase ho feta ea nako e tšoanang selemong se fetileng. Ka la 2 Pherekhong 2023, karolelano ea theko ea naha ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng e ne e le 4,492 yuan/ton, e theohile ka li-yuan tse 677/ton selemo le selemo; Ho tloha ka la 7 Phuptjane 2023, karolelano ea theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng ka 2023 e ne e le 4,153 yuan/ton, e theohile ka 1,059 yuan/ton kapa 20.32% selemo le selemo.
Ho tloha ka 2021, litheko tsa thepa li 'nile tsa tsoela pele ho sebetsa ka mokhoa o phahameng, PPI linaheng tse kholo tsa moruo e fihlile holimo,' me litheko tse phahameng tsa lihlahisoa tse holimo li 'nile tsa tsoela pele ho fetisetsoa libakeng tse bohareng le tse tlaase. Ho tloha ka Phuptjane 2022, ka tlhokahalo e tlase e tsoelang pele ea lihlahisoa tse felileng, litheko tsa thepa e tala lapeng le kantle ho naha li theohile haholo, 'me theko e tloaelehileng ea liphaephe tsa tšepe le eona e qalile ho theoha haholo. Ka mor'a maqhubu a 'maloa a ho theoha ka potlako ha litheko tsa thepa e tala, theko ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng selemong sena e tlaase haholo ho feta ea nako e tšoanang selemong se fetileng. Karolong ea pele, tlas'a tebello e ntle e kholo, tekanyo ea tlhokahalo e tlaase e ile ea ntlafala, 'me theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa naha e ile ea phahama hanyenyane. Leha ho le joalo, ka ho hlōleha ha tlhokahalo ea nako e tloaelehileng ea tlhōrō, litheko tsa lihlahisoa tse tala le lihlahisoa tse felileng li ile tsa qala ho theoha, empa ho theoha ha theko ha hoa ka ha eketsa tlhokahalo ea sebele. Ka Phuptjane, theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa naha e ne e se e le maemong a tlase lilemong tsa morao tjena.
Ⅱ. Palo ea sechaba ea sechaba ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e tlase selemo le selemo
Angoa ke phetoho e kholo le phetoho e potlakileng ea theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng lilemong tse peli tse fetileng, bahoebi ba bangata ba khethile mekhoa e tsitsitseng ea tsamaiso selemong sena. E le ho fokotsa khatello e tlisoang ke tšiea-morao ea thepa, thepa e ne e bolokoa haholo maemong a mahareng le a tlase. Ka mor'a hore theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng li fetohe 'me li theohe ka March, lethathamo la sechaba la liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng Chaena le ile la fokotseha ka potlako. Ho tloha ka la 2 Phuptjane, lethathamo la sechaba la sechaba sa liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng e ne e le lithane tse 820,400, keketseho ea 0.47% khoeli le khoeli le phokotso ea 10.61% selemo le selemo, e fihlileng boemong bo tlaase ba thepa lilemong tse tharo tse sa tsoa feta. Morao tjena, bahoebi ba bangata ba na le khatello e fokolang ea thepa.
Setšoantšo sa 2: Social Inventory of Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Ⅲ.Phaello ea phala e cheselitsoeng e boemong bo tlase lilemong tse tharo tse fetileng
Ho latela pono ea phaello ea indasteri ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng, phaello ea indasteri ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e fetoha haholo selemong sena, e ka aroloang ka mekhahlelo e latelang. Ho tloha ka la 10 Motšeanong 2023, phaello ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea indasteri ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng ho tloha ka January ho ea ho March e ne e le 105 yuan/ton, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 39 yuan/ton; Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa ho Hlakubele, phaello ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea indasteri ea liphaephe tsa masenke e ne e le 157 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 28 yuan/ton selemo le selemo; Ho tloha ka April ho ea ho May, phaello ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea indasteri ea phala e cheselitsoeng e ne e le-82 yuan/ton, ho fokotseha ha selemo le selemo ho 126 yuan/ton; Ho tloha ka April ho ea ho May, phaello ea letsatsi le letsatsi ea indasteri ea liphaephe tse entsoeng ka masenke e ne e le-20 yuan/ton, ho fokotseha ha selemo le selemo ho 44 yuan/ton; Hajoale, phaello ea indasteri ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e maemong a tlase lilemong tse tharo tsa morao tjena.
Ho tloha qalong ea selemo, likarolo tsohle tsa naha li potlakisitse kaho ea merero e meholo ho thusa moruo "ho qala hantle". Karolong ea pele, qetellong ea thibelo le taolo ea seoa, tebello ea 'maraka e ne e ntlafala,' me litheko tsa thepa e tala le lihlahisoa tse felileng li ne li sebetsa ka thata. E khannoa ke "litebello tse matla", lifeme tsa liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng le liphaephe tse entsoeng ka masenke li ne li e-na le boikemisetso bo matla ba ho tšehetsa litheko, 'me keketseho e ne e le holimo ho feta ea tšepe ea hlobolisa,' me phaello e ne e amoheleha. Leha ho le joalo, bofelong ba Hlakubele, tlhoko e lebelletsoeng ha e so lokolloe. Ha mocheso o fela 'me litaba tse mpe tsa lichelete tsa machaba li phahame, tebello e matla e khutlela ho' nete, 'me litheko tsa lifeme tsa liphaephe le barekisi li qala ho oela tlas'a khatello. Ka June, phaello ea indasteri ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng e bile boemong bo tlaase lilemong tse tharo tse fetileng, 'me ho lebeletsoe hore monyetla oa ho tsoela pele ho oa haholo o tlaase.
Setšoantšo sa 3: Social Inventory of Welded Pipe (Unit: 10,000 tons)
Setšoantšo sa 4: Phetoho ea phaello ea phala e entsoeng ka masenke lilemong tsa morao tjena (yuniti: yuan/ton)
Mohloli oa lintlha: Steel Union Data
IV. Sehlahisoa le Likhoebo tsa Tlhahiso ea Pipe e Welded
Ho latela tlhahiso le lethathamo la baetsi ba lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng, ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Motšeanong selemong sena, kakaretso ea feme ea liphaephe e fokotsehile haholo selemo le selemo, 'me sekhahla sa tšebeliso ea matla se ntse se le ho 60.2%. Tlas'a sekhahla sa ts'ebeliso ea matla a tlase selemo le selemo, lethathamo la feme ea liphaephe le ne le lula le phahame ho feta la nako e tšoanang selemong se fetileng. Ho tloha ka la 2 Phuptjane 2023, ho ea ka lipalo-palo tsa morao-rao tsa baetsi ba liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng tse 29 marang-rang a rona, kakaretso ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng ho tloha ka January ho ea ho May e ne e le lithane tse limilione tse 7.64, ho fokotseha ha selemo le selemo ka lithane tse 582,200 kapa 7.08%. Hajoale, lethathamo la feme ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng ke lithane tse 81.51, e leng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea lithane tse 34,900.
Lilemong tse peli tse sa tsoa angoa, tse anngoeng ke khatello ea ho putlama ha moruo oa lefats'e, ho fokotseha ha tlhoko ea naha le likarolo tse ling tse ngata, tlhahiso ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa lifeme tsa liphaephe tse kholo tsa lehae li bolokile boemo bo tlase. Qalong ea selemo se secha, e le ho qoba likotsi tse tlisoang ke ho fetoha ha theko, tekanyo ea kakaretso ea tšebeliso ea bokhoni ba baetsi ba lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e ne e le ka lehlakoreng le tlaase ho tloha ka January ho ea ho May. Le hoja tlhahiso ea fektheri ea liphaephe e ile ea qala ho eketseha ka ho hlakileng ka keketseho ea phaello ea fektheri ea liphaephe ka February, esita le ho feta nako e tšoanang ea selemo se fetileng, tlhahiso ea fektheri ea liphaephe e ile ea qala ho theoha ka potlako qetellong ea March ha phaello ea fektheri ea liphaephe e theoha ka potlako. Hajoale, mohopolo oa phepelo le tlhoko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng e ntse e le mokhoa o fokolang oa phepelo le tlhoko.
Setšoantšo sa 5: Phetoho ea tlhahiso ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa lifeme tse 29 tsa lipeipi tse tloaelehileng tsa malapeng (yuniti: lithane tse 10,000)
Mohloli oa lintlha: Steel Union Data
Setšoantšo sa 6: Liphetoho lethathamong la lihlahisoa tse felileng tsa lifeme tse 29 tsa lipeipi tse kholo (yuniti: lithane tse 10,000)
Mohloli oa lintlha: Steel Union Data
V. Downstream boemo ba phala e cheselitsoeng
Ho ea ka pono ea 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo,' maraka oa thekiso ea matlo o fokotsehile lilemong tsa morao tjena, 'me tlhokahalo ea matlo ha e lekane Ho tloha ka January ho ea ho April, letsete la naha ea ntlafatso ea matlo e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 3,551.4, ho theosa le 6,2% selemo le selemo; Har'a bona, matsete a bolulo e ne e le li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 2,707.2, tse theohileng ka 4.9%. Lilemong tse peli tse fetileng, libaka tse fapa-fapaneng li fane ka maano a fapaneng ka ho latellana ho khothaletsa puseletso ea 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo, mohlala, ho phomotsa sekhahla sa likalimo, palo ea letlole la provident le mangolo a thuto a ho reka matlo. Qetellong ea kotara ea pele, litoropo tse 96 li ile tsa kopana le maemo a ho phomotsa moeli o ka tlase oa sekhahla sa tsoala sa pele sa home loan, moo litoropo tse 83 li theotseng moeli o tlase oa sekhahla sa tsoala sa pele sa home loan mme litoropo tse 12 li hlakotse ka kotloloho moeli o tlase oa sekhahla sa tsoala sa pele sa home loan. Ka mor'a May Day, libaka tse ngata li tsoela pele ho lokisa leano la kalimo ea provident fund. Selemong sena, molumo o ka sehloohong oa leano la banka e bohareng mabapi le 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo ke "ho laola ka bobeli ho bata le ho chesa", e seng feela e tšehetsang metse e tobaneng le mathata a maholo' marakeng oa thekiso ea matlo ho sebelisa ka botlalo lebokose la lithulusi tsa pholisi, empa hape e hloka hore metse e nang le litheko tse ntseng li phahama tsa matlo e tlohe ho leano la tšehetso ka nako. Ka ts'ebetsong ea maano a fapa-fapaneng, ho lebeletsoe hore mokhoa o akaretsang oa ho tsosolosa 'maraka oa thekiso ea matlo o tla lula o sa fetohe selemong sena, empa tekanyo ea kakaretso ea ho hlaphoheloa e tla lieha.
Ho latela sekhahla sa kholo ea matsete a meralo ea motheo, ho ea ka lintlha tse lokollotsoeng ke Ofisi ea Naha ea Lipalopalo, ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa ho Mmesa, matsete a mahlale a naha (ntle le motlakase, mocheso, khase le liindasteri tsa tlhahiso ea metsi le phepelo) a eketsehile ka 8,5% selemo le selemo. Har'a tsona, matsete a lipalangoang tsa literene a eketsehile ka 14.0%, tsamaiso ea paballo ea metsi ka 10.7%, lipalangoang tsa litsela ka 5.8% le tsamaiso ea lits'ebeletso tsa sechaba ka 4.7%. Ka boima bo feteletseng ba maano a taolo le taolo ea cyclical, kaho ea meralo ea motheo e lebelletsoe ho phetha karolo ea tšehetso.
Ka Mmesa, index ea batsamaisi ba theko (PMI) ea indasteri ea tlhahiso e ne e le 49.2%, e theohile ka liperesente tse 2.7 ho tloha khoeling e fetileng, e tlase ho feta ntlha ea bohlokoa, mme boemo ba katleho ea indasteri ea tlhahiso bo ile ba theoha, bo oela moeling oa konteraka ka lekhetlo la pele ho tloha ka Hlakola. Mabapi le liindasteri, index ea mesebetsi ea khoebo ea indasteri ea kaho e ne e le 63.9%, e theohile ka liperesente tse 1.7 ho tloha khoeling e fetileng. Lenane la tlhahiso ea tlhahiso le tlhokahalo e fokotsehile, haholo-holo ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e sa lekaneng ea 'maraka. Le hoja index ea mesebetsi ea khoebo ea indasteri ea kaho e fokotsehile hanyenyane ka April ha e bapisoa le khoeli e fetileng, PMI ea indasteri ea kaho e ne e le ka holimo ho 60% bakeng sa likhoeli tse tharo tse latellanang, tse neng li ntse li boloka boemo bo phahameng ba katleho. Indasteri ea kaho e lebelletsoe ho ntlafala, empa ho hlaphoheloa ha tlhahiso le tlhoko ea indasteri e ntse e hloka ho khutlisoa butle-butle.
VI. Pono ea 'Maraka
Litšenyehelo: Ka Phuptjane, ka lebelo la leshome la keketseho ea theko ea coke, maikutlo a 'maraka a ile a theoha le ho feta. Hajoale, ts'ebetso e akaretsang ea coke le tšepe ea motheo e ntse e le boemong ba phepelo e matla le phepelo e fokolang, ha litsila tsa tšepe li na le litebello tse mpe bakeng sa tlhokeho ea nako e tlang, ka hona, tlhahiso ea tlhahiso e ke ke ea fetoha ntho e ka sehloohong nakong e khuts'oane, 'me khatello e ntse e tla fuoa lisebelisoa tse tala. Ho tloha qetellong ea May ho ea mathoasong a June, ke boemo ba leholimo bo phahameng ba mocheso ka boroa. Ka keketseho ea tlhokahalo ea motlakase ea bolulo le ho phahama ha limela tsa motlakase ho lokisa mashala bakeng sa lehlabula, tlhokahalo ea mashala e tla ba le ntlha ea ho fokotseha, empa hape e tla lebisa ho theoha ha litheko tsa tšepe. Ka nako e khuts'oane, ka ho fokotseha ha tšehetso ea litšenyehelo, litheko tsa tšepe tsa hlobolisa li kanna tsa tsoela pele ho fokola.
Boemo ba phepelo: Mathoasong a Phuptjane, sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ea likhoebo tsa tlhahiso ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng se theohile haholo ha se bapisoa le selemong se fetileng, mme lethathamo la lifeme tsa liphaephe le ile la tsoela pele ho fokotseha. Haufinyane, khatello ea thepa ea fektheri ea liphaephe ha e kholo, 'me tlhahiso ea fektheri ea liphaephe e tla eketseha ka mor'a hore ho hlakile hore phaello ea fektheri ea liphaephe e lokisoe.
Tlhokahalo: Motheong oa ho tebisa morero oa teko le ho akaretsa le ho tsebahatsa boiphihlelo bo ka phetoang, China e tla qala projeke ea polokeho ea lits'ebetso tsa meaho ea litoropo ka mokhoa o akaretsang. Hoa hlokahala ho etsa phuputso e akaretsang ea meralo ea motheo ea litoropo, ho theha pokello ea lits'oants'o tsa lits'ebetso tsa litoropo tse koahelang mobu le ka tlas'a lefatše, ho hloaea mehloli ea kotsi le libaka tse kotsi tsa meaho ea litoropo, le ho hlophisa lethathamo la likotsi tsa polokeho ea litoropo. Mokhoa oa bophelo oa meralo ea motheo ea litoropong o bua ka meralo ea motheo ea litoropong joalo ka khase, marokho, phepelo ea metsi, kemiso ea metsi, phepelo ea mocheso le kotopo ea lits'ebetso, tse ke keng tsa arohanngoa le mesebetsi ea litoropo le maphelo a batho. Feela joaloka “methapo” le “lijana tsa mali” tsa ’mele oa motho, ke tiiso ea hore metse e tla sebetsa ka mokhoa o sireletsehileng.
VII. Kakaretso
Ka kakaretso, karolong ea pele, tlas'a litebello tse ntle tsa macro, theko ea liphaephe tse cheselitsoeng e ile ea tšehetsoa hanyenyane. Ho tloha ka Mmesa ho isa ho Mots'eanong, ts'ebetso ea mantlha ea mashala le tšepe ea tšepe e ne e le matla ebile e fokola, 'me tšehetso ea litšenyehelo e ile ea fokola. Le hoja matsete a litšebeletso tsa motheo a ntse a eketseha, mokhoa o akaretsang oa ho tsosolosoa ha 'maraka indastering ea thekiso ea matlo e ntse e sa fetohe selemong sena, empa lebelo la ho hlaphoheloa ka kakaretso le lieha. Ka qalo ea morero oa polokeho ea lits'ebeletso tsa lits'ebetso tsa litoropo, tlhoko ea lipeipi tsa tšepe e ka eketseha haufinyane, empa tekano lipakeng tsa phepelo le tlhoko e ntse e tla nka nako. Ha mmoho le leano la phaello e phahameng ea Fed, koluoa ea libanka e ntse e mpefala, 'me tefiso ea kotsi ea lefats'e e tla nyoloha haholo, e leng se tla mpefatsa ho hloka botsitso ha mebaraka ea thepa mme se ka ama thepa ea kantle ho naha ea China. Ka kakaretso, ho lebelletsoe hore theko ea lipeipi tse cheselitsoeng tsa naha e ntse e tla emisa ho theoha le ho tsitsisa ho tloha ka Phuptjane ho isa Phupu.
Nako ea poso: Jul-28-2023